Now we are past Labour Day, we normally give to the week after the holidays and consider that a “full house of Global traders”. In other words, people are back from holiday and volume usually increases.
And it looks set to be an interesting trading period up to the New Year. Of course, all of the normal short-term trades are on the table, but it’s the news outlook that is most interesting and that can generate some massive moves. Keep your ears on the Jigsaw News Squawk and update your keywords because we have so many opportunities for news-driven moves.
This is interesting for a number of reasons. Trump is back in the mix, which always makes for good (or bad) news, but it’s the economics of the two parties that are so fundamentally at odds right now. The perception playing out is that the Democrats are putting the economy on the line for the sake of Global warming and that they (and Russia vs Ukraine) are responsible for extremely high inflation in the US. So as we move forward, and the polls flip and flop from one side to the other, the market should react quite nicely because the economic impact is at polar opposites for the 2 parties if you believe the hype.
Russia has turned off the gas – can someone put a Ruble in the meter?
The Russians recently switched off gas supplies to Europe, which again has an inflationary impact. So, not only will Russia vs Ukraine news have an impact, it looks like it’s Russia against everyone. Once more – listen to what they are doing and see the impact on oil and stock futures. Remember – it’s not so important to guess the direction – but after big news, the biggest days for the fearless are jumping on those moves as long as the order flow confirms.
Interest Rates – will they or won’t they?
The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Inflation is rising, but they aren’t making the moves in interest rates required to put a stop to it, they are too worried about crashing the markets. The markets will crash anyway if they don’t do something. In the late 80’s in the UK, mortgage rates went up to 18%, so all this 2.5, 2.75% nonsense isn’t going to reign anything in. They may be forced to be more aggressive – but look out for interest rates.
I know – this is soooooo last year. But COVID could ramp up in the winter (like the flu) and we could see closures. It seems almost impossible to consider airlines closing and businesses restricted, but you can bet it’ll give us moves if they do.
These are just my thoughts as we get back into trading. Ignore the above at your peril, and please tell me what I missed, so I’m not ignoring something in peril either!
Labor Day Sale
It seems like every year, we get a new request for a sale we didn’t run before. This time we are getting requests for a “labor day sale”. For some of our biggest discounts ever (till Sept 9th), click here.